Avalanche hazard’s assessment and forecast on the Gudauri-Kobi section of the Georgian Military Road

Author: Irakli Megrelidze
Keywords: snow avalanche, disaster, early warning system
Annotation:

The complicated topography of Georgia, frequently contributes aggravation of the atmospheric circulation processes and challenging the formation of various natural disasters such as: flood/flash-floods, snow avalanches, landslides, mudflow etc. It should be noted, that in recent decades, based on the climate change, on the territory of Georgia significantly observed the growth trend of the intensity and frequency of natural hydrometeorological disasters. These events cause significant economic damage and often ends with human casualties. On the territory of Georgia, snow avalanches, with its intensity mainly facing in the Caucasus, lesser Caucasus and in Guria-Ajara medium and high mountain zones. There are such 5000 avalanche catchments areas, which endanger up to 1100 settlements, also roads and other communication constructions. In 1970-71, 1975-1976, 1986-1987, 2004-2005 catastrophic snowfalls ended with 176 human losses, the material damage reached 750 million US dollars. With its frequency and intensity of snow avalanches, Gudauri-Kobi section of the Georgian Military Road vary from others. On the mentioned road, totally are fixed 59 avalanche catchments, from which 41 immediate harm to road. Because of the threat of avalanche, the duration of closed days along the section vary from 20 to 50. In the spring time, with the temperature rise, the section is closed averagely during 30-40 days. To avoid human casualties and minimize expected economic losses, we need to provide detailed geomorphological investigation, also install automatic snow avalanche station and establish early warning system.